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Syria

Beyond oil score(out of 100 points) 38.5
Index ranking(out of 26 countries ranked) 18
Overall status*  
General Economic Framework  
Political Framework  
Society and Future Skills  
(Beyond) oil related factors  


According to the US Department of Energy, Syria’s proven oil reserves are estimated to be 2.5 billion barrels. Since peaking at 590,000 bbl/d in 1996, Syria's oil output has fallen, to an estimated 460,000 bbl/d in 2004, as older fields, especially the large Jebisseh field discovered in 1968, have reached maturity. Syrian oil production is expected to continue its decline over the next several years, while consumption rises, leading to a reduction in Syrian net oil exports.

The Syrian economy is characterised by its centralised nature, as the Syrian government plays a large role in planning and running the economy. The biggest income generator for the Syrian economy is the oil sector, providing approximately 75% of export receipts. Oil exports also provide the Syrian government with half of its revenues. Services industry and Agriculture sector provide the Syrian government with the rest of its income in descending order. Syria is classed as a lower middle-income economy by the World Bank. This is due to the challenges faced by the economy which undermine its performance. Syria’s current oil resources are dwindling. Estimates vary with the Syrian government saying that it doesn't expect to become a net oil importer until 2020, whilst other foreign analysts place their estimates six or even eight years earlier than that. Unless new oil resources are found the Syrian government will suffer a 50% fall in its revenue when oil is no longer exported. This will have a significant impact on the economy. The sanctions placed by the US also hurt the Syrian economy. This is because they restrict Syrian exports to the US whilst placing an embargo on the sale of American goods and investment by American companies in Syria, especially in the oil sector. The Syrian government has embarked on a program to diversify its economy away from oil. In 2005, total investments in Syria reached $6 billion, a 25% increase over the year. The Tourism industry plays a big part in such plans. Recent achievements by the Syrian government in this field includes the $15 billion investment by Persian Gulf and European countries for the construction of a holiday resort in the Jabal Al Sheikh region, located near Damascus. The Syrian government is also attracting investments in its gas sector as well as oil refinery industry. Increased external trade is another method applied by the Syrian government as means of pushing the Syrian economy forward. As a result over the last three years Syria has established a Free Trade Zone with Turkey, whilst planning to establish Free Trade Zones with Iran and with the rest of the Arab world by joining GAFTA (Greater Arab Free Trade Area). Syria is also about to sign an accord with Russia which aims to increase bilateral trade from current figures of $250 million to $1 billion over the next five years.

Beyond Oil Summary

Syria’s Beyond Oil future faces a number of serious challenges, which have contributed to its low ranking in the Beyond Oil index.

Lack of investment in the non oil sector is the number one problem facing the authorities. As oil resources dwindle, Syria has been unable to find an alternative industry which will supply the country’s coffers with the same amount of income that oil currently does. Continued US sanctions, plus high level of corruption also contribute to lack of growth and investment by foreign countries in Syria’s non oil sector.

  Indicates high preparedness   Indicates deficits but potential for development   Indicates unfavourable preconditions.
 
     
   
 
 
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