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In this section we have compiled a number of frequently asked questions about the beyond oil index.
About this project
1. Q: Are you the Club of Rome?
A: No.
We are a working group composed of members of tt30, the young think tank of the Club of Rome. Our work has largely been inspired by tt30´s view on the world´s key issues, namely the web of the problematique and the Club of Rome´s aim to promote long-term holistic thinking. However, this study is our independent work and has not been commissioned neither by tt30 nor the Club of Rome.
For more information see:
www.clubofrome.org
www.clubofrome.org/tt30
2. Q: Has some business, political party or foundation commissioned you or paid you for this work?
A: No.
This study has been conducted free of any political or economic interest.
3. Q: How up-to-date is the information provided in your study?
A: The underlying information for this study has been compiled throughout 2006. We have used the most recent available sources of information. To catch up with the latest developments we will update beyond oil on an annual base.
About our methodology
4. Q: Is this exact science?
A: No.
Although the used indices are widely recognised, subjective judgements are a major part of this study as we have, i.e., deliberately decided on how to weight each component in the index.
As in any other work connected to future issues, we make forecasts, using a number of assumptions.
Within the assumptions we have made, we feel this is a logical, systematic and scientific approach. The assumptions and premises we have made are result of a long process of considerations and discussions, however they remain subject to individual judgements and deliberate decisions.
Whereas we are sure that this study can substantially enrich current discussions we merely make an attempt to forecast what will most probably happen if current trends continue.
See also: disclaimer.
5. Q: Did you conduct all this research yourself?
A: Yes and no.
The biggest part of your work was to obtain data from widely recognised, publicly available indices and statistics. In this way, we have been working with existing data and did no front-line research.
However, we have regrouped this data from our beyond oil perspective and have analysed the results. This is our part of this work.
6. Q: Why did you include such different indicators like A,B and C in your ranking? Are they really connected to oil issues?
A: I our thinking, one of the major shortcomings of conventional studies is that they focus on only one complex of issues (i.e. technological studies often neglect the economic, political and social impact of oil production).
In an effort to get a whole (=holistic) picture we have carefully chosen and combined a number of indicators from different spheres of society.
7. Q: Why precisely did you choose the 18 criteria you are working with? (And not other ones?)
A: To determine the indicators we are working with we have taken a three step approach:
First, we have asked which are the key driving forces for beyond oil preparedess. In our opinion, these are 1. a country’s general economic framework, 2. its political framework, 3. a country’s society and future skills and 4. oil-related factors.
Second, we have asked ourselves what are the most important aspects within each of these four key driving forces (i.e. freedom, corruption and good governance within a country’s political framework).
Third, we have searched for a credible existing index that an index/ranking for these criteria (i.e., Transparency International provides a widely recognised country index for corruption, the “corruption perception index”).
8. Q: How have you decided the value/weight for each criterion?
A: Thinking of the preparedness of a certain country for the beyond oil era, different criteria are important. However, they are not all equally important. In our thinking, non-oil related factors are more important for the beyond oil era than oil-related indicators. For a largely economic issue as oil/beyond oil, economic indicators seem to have more weight than, cultural or sociological aspects.
After a long process of consideration and discussion with external experts we have decided to deliberately weight our factors as we did it feeling that this is the best combination for our purpose (see also: 1.: Is this exact science?).
9. Q: Not all the rankings and indices you use as sources list all the countries in your beyond oil index. How did you get a score for your index in these cases?
A: In fact, not all our sources list all our 26 beyond oil countries. In these cases, we did additional research. I.e., we a) looked at the underlying sources for the indicators we used and tried to obtain the necessary data and b) compared our target country to neighbouring countries under similar circumstances. We feel that these “qualified guesses” are close enough to reality to produce acceptable results.
10. Q: Why would countries with enormous reserves of oil such as country A care or prepare for “beyond oil”? And then, if its time span to prepare is longer than other countries because its reserves are larger, why do you rate it among the last ones in the ranking?
A: In fact, with estimated reserves of 30, 40 or even more than 50 years, there is a number of countries that seemingly do not face an oil running out problem. However, we believe that proved reserves are a highly volatile figure – a raise of drilling capacities can quickly lead to a steep decline of reserves in terms of annual production. Moreover, the last decades have shown that economic and political transformation take decades of continous work to be successfully completed. So it makes sense to start early with beyond oil preparations, even if reserves are likely to last for 30 years or more.
On the other hand, countries with high oil reserves earn a considerable bonus in the beyond oil index. If they still score very low this might indicate severe shortcomings in their political, economic or social framework.
11. Q: Can you tell me more about the competitive future industries ranking you have used?
A:
As the focus of our study is to look at a future where oil is no longer available, when it came to rank the preparedness of oil producing countries, we ranked the industries which require the least amount of oil, are environmentally friendly, and meet the challenges of tomorrow. As a result, the industries which carry the highest weights are technology focused because technology based industries meet the aforementioned criteria, plus the fact that they encourage investment in areas such as education. The export values of technology focused products are also high. All such factors in the long term encourage sustainable growth.
Subsequently, industries which do not produce high value, sustainable growth in the future receive a low ranking. For example industries such as retail, mining and textiles do not encourage investment in education, nor are they viewed as sustainable for future economic growth. Mining has a finite life, and in most cases in the developing world is not environmentally friendly; while retail mostly relies on imports and does not encourage investment in education and long term job creation.
In order to take into account the particularities of each economy the future industries algorithm was completed by a country-by-country research based on recent developments in the specific economies.
12. Q: In your ranking, there is a difference of only one point between countries A and B. Can you really say that country A is doing better?
A: No.
We do not claim absolute exactitude for our results.
As a rule of thumb, a difference of 0.5 or 1 index points is a neglectible.
A difference of two index points indicates a noticeable, yet modest distinction.
13. Q: I have noticed that the major oil producing country X is missing in your ranking. Why?
A: For this first edition of Beyond Oil we have focussed on OPEC countries as well as the world’s largest non-OPEC oil producers plus a few other countries facing emblematic oil-related problems. More countries are to come in next year’s edition.
14. Q: I found a mistake or a piece of inaccurate or outdated information in your ranking our country profiles.
A: Nobody’s perfect. We are happy for any advise for further improvement. Please contact us.
How to get involved
15. Q: Is there something can I do to get involved in Beyond Oil?
A: Yes.
Tell a friend (use the tell a friend-function on many of our pages).
Put the beyond-oil issue on the agenda of your university courses, in the strategic planning meetings of your company or organisation.
Leave a message in our forum/blog.
Get to know more about the Club of Rome and its young think tank tt30.
Contct us with special issues or questions.
16. Q: I'm working on a related study for my business, my university or for public administration.
A: We would be happy to exchange experiences and opinions with you. Please contact us.
17. Q: Can I actively contribute to your project?
A: Yes.
If you have a profound knowledge of one or several oil producing countries we would be interested in hearing from you. The same counts if you are working in an oil-related industry, service sector or public administration. See “contact” for details.
18. Q: Can I use your study/findings for my own work?
A: Sure.
This study is openly available to everyone. Don’t forget to quote beyondoil.net as your source.
19. Is this copyright-protected material?
A: Yes.
Please note that this study is protected under US copyright law.
20. Q: I like the idea behind tt30, the young think tank of the Club of Rome. Can I get involved in this organisation?
A: Yes.
See the web site www.clubofrome.org/tt30 for further details.
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